New Hampshire poll shows a four-way dead heat in the Democratic primary
The results showed Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren holding steady in the four-way statistical tie, while Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden are on opposite trajectories.
With just 11 weeks until the New Hampshire presidential primary, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll shows a four-front fight in the Democratic race.
The survey, which was released Tuesday, found Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the reigning New Hampshire primary winner, with 16 percent support among likely Democratic voters, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and former Vice President Joe Biden close behind — and within the poll’s +/- 4.4 percent margin of error — at 14 percent, 13 percent, and 12 percent, respectively.
While suggesting a statistical tie, the poll also indicated a race in flux. A 21 percent plurality of voters said they remained undecided and just 43 percent of respondents said they had completely made up their mind.
Including leaners, the results of the poll show virtually no movement in support for Sanders and Warren since the last Suffolk/Globe poll in August, while Buttigieg’s support increased 7 percent and Biden’s support dropped 9 percent.
All other candidates remained in single-digits with Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard at 6 percent, entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 4 percent, California Sen. Kamala Harris at 3 percent, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 2 percent, and philanthropist Tom Steyer at 2 percent. All other candidates, including former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick — who made a late entrance into the race earlier this month — were at 1 percent or less.
Other takeaways:
- Just over half of voters agreed with the statement that Patrick had waited too long to enter the race and said they won’t consider voting for him.
- At 21 percent, health care was the most important issue to Democratic voters in the Granite State, followed by climate change and impeaching President Donald Trump, which were each at 18 percent.
- Voters were narrowly split — 46 percent to 47 percent — on the question of whether it was more important to nominate a candidate “who can defeat Donald Trump” versus one who “reflects my priorities and values.”
- Warren was the second choice of more than 15 percent of voters, just ahead of Sanders and Buttigieg, both at 13 percent.
- More than 6.5 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would vote for Trump if the party doesn’t nominate their first choice.
- The results of the poll suggest that Warren and Sanders have the most active campaigns in the state. Of the voters who said they had been contacted by a campaign, 39 percent said they had been reached by Warren’s team and 37 percent said they had heard from the Sanders campaign. Buttigieg’s campaign was next at 29 percent.
- A 23 percent plurality of respondents who watched last week’s Democratic debate said they thought Buttigieg did better than expected. Forty-four percent said that Biden did worse than expected.
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