Here’s who’s leading in the latest New Hampshire primary poll
The first survey since Joe Biden entered the race shows the former vice president with an early lead.
In the first New Hampshire primary poll since Joe Biden officially entered the 2020 race, the former vice president is leading the field of nearly two dozen Democratic candidates.
According to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released Tuesday, a little over 20 percent of likely Democratic voters in the Granite State say they would vote for Biden, if the primary were held today. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came in second with 12.4 percent of likely voters, with South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg a close third at 11.9 percent.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in fourth with over 8.4 percent support, ahead of California Sen. Kamala Harris (6.1 percent), former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (3 percent), and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2.8 percent). The poll’s margin of error was +/- 3.5 percent.
Nearly 27 percent of voters said they were still undecided.
No other candidates registered support from more than five voters in the poll, which surveyed 429 voters on the Democratic field from last Thursday (the day Biden kicked off his campaign) to Sunday. Here’s the complete breakdown of responses:
Undecided: 26.81 percent
Joe Biden: 20.05 percent
Bernie Sanders: 12.35 percent
Pete Buttigieg: 11.89 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 8.39 percent
Kamala Harris: 6.06 percent
Beto O’Rourke: 3.03 percent
Cory Booker: 2.80 percent
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.17 percent
Amy Klobuchar: 1.17 percent
Andrew Yang: 1.17 percent
John Delaney: 0.70 percent
Steve Bullock: 0.47 percent
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.47 percent
Marianne Williamson: 0.47 percent
Michael Bennet: 0.23 percent
Julian Castro: 0.23 percent
Bill de Blasio: 0.23 percent
John Hickenlooper: 0.23 percent
Wayne Messam: 0.23 percent
Seth Moulton: 0.23 percent
Tim Ryan: 0.23 percent
Eric Swalwell: 0.23 percent
Mike Gravel: 0 percent
Jay Inslee: 0 percent
With more than eight months to go until the first-in-the-nation primary, it is still early. However, David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, says it will be difficult for other candidates in the crowded field to overtake the current frontrunners.
“Despite the dauntingly large number of candidates potentially on the New Hampshire ballot, more than half of possible Democratic primary voters are split among just four names: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren,” Paleologos said in a statement.
“It will be challenging for one of the lesser-known candidates to vault over Biden, two senators from neighboring states, and Buttigieg, the youthful alternative with great momentum, given their respective bases—even with more than one in four New Hampshire voters still undecided,” he added.
Rep. Seth Moulton, the Massachusetts congressman who announced his White House bid last week, was the first pick of exactly one voter in the Suffolk poll Tuesday.
Several recent New Hampshire primary polls this month have also showed Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg leading the Democratic race, with Warren, Harris, and O’Rourke trailing slightly behind.
Several other Democrats who haven’t yet officially announced White House bids (Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio) collectively received a handful of votes.
Meanwhile, 88-year-old former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, whose idiosyncratic 2020 campaign has explicitly said he “does not want people to vote for him,” and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, a climate change-focused candidate who has bumped heads with New Hampshire’s Democratic establishment, received support from zero voters in the Suffolk poll.
The results of the poll also hinted toward a reason for Biden’s early lead: The issue of so-called electability, which polls show Democratic voters care about more in 2020 than in other recent presidential races.
When asked who they thought had the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump, more than 35 percent of voters in the Suffolk poll responded with the former vice president’s name, despite his two previous failed presidential campaigns. Thirteen percent said Sanders, and no other candidate registered more than 5 percent on the issue. Nearly a third of Democratic voters were undecided or refused to answer the question.
Trump does however have his own primary with which to contend — though he currently holds a commanding lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, the only declared Republican challenger, in the New Hampshire poll. More than 72 percent of Republican voters backed the incumbent president in a one-on-one matchup against Weld, who received 16.5 percent support.
