Rochester a trusty bellwether on political loyalties of N.H.
ROCHESTER, N.H. — For those seeking clarity amid the noise of election results from all over the country Tuesday night, here is some helpful advice: Early in the night, pay attention to the vote in Rochester, N.H.
As this small former mill city goes, so goes New Hampshire. And if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump doesn’t win New Hampshire, where polls show him tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton, it becomes extremely unlikely that he will be the next president. If Clinton loses New Hampshire, she would still have a path to win.
In the past four presidential elections, Rochester voters have had an uncanny ability to mirror the overall statewide vote, according to an analysis from the Suffolk University Political Research Center. In 2000, the city and the state both voted for George W. Bush over Al Gore, exactly 48 to 47 percent. In 2004, Rochester was tied, 50-50, between Bush and John Kerry; the state voted for Kerry, 50-49. In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain, 55 to 45 percent, in Rochester and 54-45 statewide. And in 2012, Obama beat Mitt Romney, 51-47, in Rochester and 52-46 statewide.
“Rochester has a crystal ball made of granite when it comes to predicting general elections in presidential years,” said David Paleologos, who did the analysis at Suffolk.
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