Donald Trump’s general election odds still look grim in Massachusetts
If there's one thing that gets Bernie Sanders voters to back Hillary Clinton, it's Trump, says a new poll.
Despite dominating the Massachusetts Republican primary, as well as the state’s delegate selection last month, here’s yet another reminder that Donald Trump likely won’t fare well in the Bay State come November.
Results released Monday from a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll show 54.8 percent of likely Massachusetts voters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton versus 31.4 percent who say they would vote for Trump in the general election.
The presumptive Republican nominee is also viewed unfavorably by 63 percent of voters, while only 28 percent view Trump favorably. Clinton, meanwhile, held a slightly favorable image among Massachusetts voters, 47 percent to 43.4 percent.
While Trump is still relatively popular among Republicans in the state, Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos noted that the GOP represents just a small slice of the Massachusetts population.
“Keep in mind Republican registration in Massachusetts, it’s only 11 percent,” Paleologos told the Boston.com Morning Show.
Paleologos also said he did not expect Trump to compete in Massachusetts, noting that even if a two-thirds majority of independent swung in favor of Trump, Clinton would maintain a high single-digit lead.
The former secretary of state, who is on track to be the first major-party female presidential nominee, also demolishes Trump among Massachusetts women, leading him 62 percent to 25 percent likely voters.
Trump’s candidacy also appears to have a potentially significant reverse-turnout effect on supporters of Bernie Sanders in Massachusetts, Paleologos told Boston.com, if Clinton does ultimately secure the nomination.
The Vermont senator lost the Massachusetts primary to Clinton in March by 2.4 percentage points, as the two Democratic candidates have continued a grueling and contentious primary battle. Yet at this point, it is mathematically impossible for Sanders to beat Clinton with just pledged delegates.
Just 53.3 percent of Sanders supporters initially said they would back Clinton in a general election against a generic Republican candidate, while nearly two-fifths said they would either consider a third-party candidate, stay at home, or were undecided. More than 8 percent even said they would vote Republican.
However, later in the survey, when Clinton’s candidacy was put up against Trump specifically, 74 percent of Sanders supporters now said they would back the Democratic candidate.
“They may not be enthusiastic supporters of Clinton,” Paleologos said. “But once Trump becomes the other name on the ballot, a lot of Sanders voters will jump from being undecided or voting third-party to voting Clinton.”
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