Joe Biden’s decision could cut down Bernie Sanders’ once-solid lead in New Hampshire
Joe Biden is not going to run for the Democratic nomination for president, and that appears to be bad news for Bernie Sanders.
With the Vermont senator’s lead in New Hampshire recently slipping, Biden’s announcement could boost once-presumptive Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton even further, according to MassInc Polling President Steve Koczela.
“Now that [Biden]’s out, you’ll see her with a lead that grows by 5 or 10 points compared to the polls that were conducted with his hypothetical candidacy included,’’ Koczela told WBUR’s All Things Considered on Wednesday.
Recent polling showed Biden’s New Hampshire supporters already fleeing to Clinton.
In a WBUR/MassInc Polling survey released Wednesday morning (before Biden’s announcement), the vice president’s support had dropped from 14 percent to 9 percent among potential New Hampshire primary voters since September.
The WBUR poll showed Clinton’s overall support increased from 31 percent to 38 percent, while Sanders’ support slightly dropped from 35 percent to 34 percent (with a margin of error of 4.8 percent). It was just one of multiple recent polls showing Clinton regaining lost ground to Sanders in the Granite State.
Koczela pointed out that Clinton and Biden supporters share similar demographics. National polls show that Biden was drawing non-white, female, and older supporters from Clinton much more than Sanders did.
According to a CNN poll in September, when Biden was excluded from the race, Clinton had net gains over Sanders of plus-12 among non-white voters, plus-13 among female voters, and plus-14 among voters older than 65.
A Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday found that 40 percent of Biden’s New Hampshire supporters would pick Clinton as their second choice; just 15 percent would choose Sanders.
Koczela told All Things Considered that though Sanders could benefit from more attention in a clear head-to-head matchup against Clinton, the former secretary of state was the real winner of Biden’s announcement.
“The evidence was pretty clear that Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were dividing some of the same voters, they were dividing some of the same pie,’’ Koczela said. “Whereas the group of voters that was for Sanders seems to be pretty distinct.’’
Koczela wrote for WBUR that Clinton’s resurgence in New Hampshire was built on the perception of electability following the first Democratic presidential debate.
Granite State primary voters who thought Clinton could win the general election increased from 56 percent to 71 percent since September (those who thought Sanders could win rose only slightly from 34 percent to 39 percent).
Another winner following Biden’s decision not to run for president, Koczela told All Things Considered: Republicans.
“He did the best in general election matchups of any of the potential Democrats,’’ Koczela said. “So without him in the race, at least in the polls that have come out to date…obviously it’s very early, but it seems like him dropping out is a good thing for Republicans as well.’’
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