Yes, Donald Trump’s early New Hampshire lead is important
“It’s not issue driven,’’ one pollster says. “It just seems to be attitude driven.’’
With Donald Trump’s lead in New Hampshire’s Republican primary, it’s getting more and more difficult for the “losers and haters’’ to dismiss his stunning rise.
Trump has often been compared (unfavorably) to other Republican flashes in the pan, including Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain, all of whom held brief leads in the 2012 presidential race.
But those candidates never held a lead in New Hampshire.
The Granite State, heavy with independent voters, is the second state primary and is often used as a bellwether of the national, moderate attitude toward a candidate. Iowa, the first state caucus, reflects the more populist notions of the parties. In the 2008 Democratic primary, for example, exciting newcomer Barack Obama won the Iowa caucus while well-known commodity Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire.
The two states work in tandem. Comparing them is typically a good way to compare the leading candidates of the primary season.
Which makes it even more important that Trump, as of now, is toasting the Republican field in New Hampshire. A poll from Monmouth University earlier this week found he was the favorite of 24 percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. Jeb Bush, the well-funded moderate of the field, had half of Trump’s support in that same poll.
Patrick Murray, a pollster with Monmouth University, said the popularity of Trump’s “shotgun approach’’ resonated with the anger and frustrations of Republican voters.
“I think part of it might be voters letting off steam at this point in the race, and Trump being the vehicle by which they can do it,’’ he said.
Trump’s dramatic rise is a shift from just a few weeks ago and a far cry from the last election cycle. In 2011-12, amid the rise and fall of various GOP candidates, Mitt Romney held the New Hampshire lead with around 35-40 percent support throughout the campaign season. A late surge brought Gingrich close, and then he faded. No one else came within 10 percentage points of Romney.
In the 2008 primary season, Romney led New Hampshire for the majority of the year, only to be surpassed toward the end by Sen. John McCain.
So how has Trump done it? Well, his support is not just among immigration hardliners or voters who dislike McCain. Trump’s rising popularity can be seen across the board, from Tea Party members to moderates.
In the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University [PDF], Trump leads the pack with 20 percent of the vote among Republicans. That support is noticeably constant across backgrounds: He wins 23 percent of Tea Party support, 20 percent of Evangelicals, and even 17 percent of Republicans who describe themselves as moderate/liberal.
“There doesn’t seem to be any clear ideological or issue area that Trump is pulling from,’’ said Murray. “It’s not issue-driven, it just seems to be attitude-driven.’’
He’s amassed a diverse group of supporters – and haters – with his occasionally off-the-wall comments. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban succinctly explained why he thought Trump was “probably the best thing to happen to politics in a long, long time.’’
“I don’t care what his actual positions are,’’ Cuban wrote, according to Business Insider. “I don’t care if he says the wrong thing. He says what’s on his mind. He gives honest answers rather than prepared answers. This is more important than anything any candidate has done in years.’’
As Cuban notes, Trump’s fans don’t necessarily like or even know his policies. A focus group of New Hampshire voters shared similar sentiments on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.
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“Trump is a threat,’’ one supporter says, “because he doesn’t fit in the same box all the other Republicans are in.’’
Trump’s brazen dismissal of politically correct language and ideas separates him from the usual tone-policing candidates.
Candidates like, well, the last New Hampshire Republican primary winner.
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So how long can Trump’s run last?
“Donald Trump is really ahead in the horse race nominally, but he’s not ahead of the serious candidates if you take them all together,’’ Murray said. The question is whether one or two of those other candidates will emerge from the field.’’
Gallery: The many 2016 presidential candidates
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