New England

Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting about this year’s winter weather in the Northeast

Whether you trust the almanac's predictions or not, its message is clear: prepare for cold.

Homes and trees covered with snow
Pittsfield, Massachusetts is pictured in March 2023. Ben Garver/The Berkshire Eagle via AP

By Chloe Courtney Bohl

2 minutes to read

Never mind that it’s only August, the powers that be over at the Farmers’ Almanac have already made their winter weather predictions. And their message to New Englanders is clear: prepare for a cold one.

“The BRRR is back!” after an unseasonably warm winter this year, the 200-year-old Maine-based periodical wrote in its winter 2024 extended forecast, published Tuesday.

The almanac predicted blizzard conditions in northern New England as early as December 2023.

“For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter,” the almanac announced, “you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.”

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The almanac also said the second week of February will bring “an East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states,” marked by “snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures.”

There will be another East Coast storm in early March, the periodical reported, followed by one last snowfall for New England’s higher elevations in late April. 

Farmers’ Almanac reports using a “mathematical and astronomical formula” — tweaked only slightly since its development in 1818 by the periodical’s first editor — to make its signature long-range weather predictions. 

THE ALMANACS:

But the formula itself is a bit of a mystery. We know the almanac considers indicators like sunspot activity, the planets’ positions and the moon’s effect on tides to develop its forecasts. However, “the only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” according to the almanac’s website.

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“To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret,” the site reads.

Local meteorologists don’t find the Farmers’ Almanac predictions to be terribly reliable, Boston.com reported in 2019. When the forecasts come out each summer, many of them said, it’s still too early to analyze how jet stream patterns, major storms, and other meteorological factors will impact winter weather.

One of the meteorologists put a finer point on it, calling the almanac’s long-range forecast “fun” but “worthless.” 

Sandi Duncan, Farmers’ Almanac’s managing editor, dismissed the almanac-haters’ criticisms in 2019, blaming “professional jealousy.”

Meanwhile, if you don’t like the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions, never fear: The other weather-predicting almanac — The Old Farmer’s Almanac based in Dublin, New Hampshire — should have its winter forecast out any time now.

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