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BU professor finds extensive effects of Trump-era policies in Massachusetts
The professor says "targeted policies" will and may have already caused economic harm to the state.
In a revealing new report, Boston University’s Mark Williams warns that the Trump administration’s policies—such as tariffs, cuts to federal funding, and stricter immigration enforcement—threaten the Massachusetts economy, with some damage already unfolding.
Williams, a finance professor at BU’s Questrom School of Business, conducted a four-month in-depth analysis of the White House’s policy shifts and how they affect the state’s economy, with graduate student Jennifer Langley.
“If you were trying to upend the Massachusetts economy, there would not be a better strategy than what the Trump administration has put in place,” said Williams, in a call with Boston.com.
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The report outlines how the administration’s policies disproportionately harm the state’s core industries, such as health care, higher education, and the life sciences.
Williams said eight out of the 10 largest employers in the state, including Mass General Brigham, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Harvard University, are directly impacted. Companies like TJ Maxx and defense contractor Raytheon are also affected through trade.
“I call it a wrecking ball,” he said. “It is a gigantic wrecking ball that’s hit Massachusetts.”
The exact amount of economic damage depends on the country’s overall financial health and whether policies also set off a wider national or global recession.
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Williams said that unlike the last two downturns, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers cannot assume that the federal government will step in with funds to lessen the impact. The impact will also hit differently this time because the economic policies target a third of the state’s GDP growth providers.
The report found that tariffs could cause the most significant economic harm, or in 2026 could cost the state $12.8 billion in lower economic growth, almost $1 billion in lost tax revenue, and up to 79,000 lost jobs.
Even if the president reverses tariffs and a recession is avoided, the report found that the state remains vulnerable.
The report said in 2026, NIH cuts could cost Massachusetts $1.4-$2.2 billion in economic activity and 14,000 jobs. Fifteen major universities and research institutions that receive over $50 million annually are at risk, and a lack of alternative funding could weaken the state’s leadership in life sciences, a key economic driver.
Possible federal funding cuts to Massachusetts programs like MassHealth may also increase economic loss up to $1.3 billion annually. The report said even a 3% to 5% drop in federal funding reimbursement to Medicaid could generate a $2.9 to $4.7 billion loss by 2028.
Additionally, the report said increased immigrant removals and border restrictions will reduce the number of workers, causing a tighter Massachusetts labor market.
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Fewer available workers will impact transportation, warehousing, manufacturing and construction, and STEM-driven companies. It will also lead to fewer entrepreneurial startups, fewer jobs, and lower innovation, according to the report.
The report found that new policies could reduce tourism and travel to the state. Travel bans and anti-immigration measures may also lower foreign student enrollment, harming local colleges and the broader regional economy.
“It adds up,” said Williams. And “there’s going to be more cuts.”
The report also suggests that the state allocate funding to the Attorney General’s Office as a first step in fighting harmful economic policies.
The state government is already preparing for the worst, with the Healey administration enacting a hiring freeze of the state’s executive branch last week.
“Massachusetts needs to put a Mass. Strong policy together and understand that this isn’t a Republican, Democrat thing,” Williams said. “This is our economy. As it goes south, it impacts everybody.”
