‘I think we can do this’: Ashish Jha breaks down how to vaccinate all seniors and teachers by end of March
“We will need to put 2.5M doses into arms every day.”
Related Links
Dr. Ashish Jha says it is possible to vaccinate everyone over the age of 65, teachers, and school staff in the United States by the end of March — before the coronavirus variant first detected in the United Kingdom becomes dominant.
The dean of the Brown University School of Public Health laid out his thinking in a thread on Twitter late Wednesday, stressing that the goal of getting a COVID-19 vaccine to every teacher, school staff, and individuals over 65 in the coming weeks is “doable.”
The effort may be hard, he wrote, but the doctor said he’s optimistic that it can be achieved as long as “we do our job.”
“We should have the supply,” Jha wrote. “We will need to put 2.5M doses into arms every day.”
With 26 million individuals in the United States needing their second dose, 35 million people over 65 still needing a first shot, and about 12 million teachers and school staff waiting for vaccinations, the doctor calculated that the country needs 75 million doses, assuming 80 percent of those eligible actually accept the vaccine, and there’s no overlap between the groups.
According to Jha, with 17 million doses already in freezers across the country and another 82 million expected to be in production and distributed by the end of March, there will be more than enough vaccinations to meet his plan, which doesn’t factor in the expected approval of the single-dose vaccine from Johnson & Johnson.
“Bottom line? We should have enough vaccines for high risk folks before UK variant dominant,” he wrote. “Need flawless execution. But it’s doable. And I think we can do this.”
Health officials have warned that the UK variant, which is believed to be more contagious, is expected to become the dominant source of new COVID-19 infections this spring.
I wrote a long thread on why we should have enough vaccines to vaccinate all seniors and all teachers/staff by March 31
Here’s the summary
We should have the supply
We will need to put 2.5M doses into arms every day
I assume no J&J
This is doable
Here are the numbers https://t.co/bao3wOQwDu pic.twitter.com/cSceQxVORT
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 18, 2021
We can get 2nd dose into about half (remember, have to wait 3-4 weeks between doses)
So we need 52M doses to get all remaining 35M seniors at least one dose and half their 2nd dose
What about teachers? 3.2M teachers in America
But schools have other staff too!
3/9
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 18, 2021
Obviously too aggressive
Assumes no teacher has already gotten vaccinated
Assumes no teacher/staff >65 (probably 10-15% are)
And assumes no vaccine hesitancy – that everyone will want it
Realistically? need closer to 75M doses if 80% uptake among seniors, teachers
5/9
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 18, 2021
So we’ll have about 100M doses to administer between now and 3/31
2.5M doses a day
We can administer that if we have supply
And will need 75M to:
1. Finish current folks
2. Give two doses to teachers/staff
3. Two doses to half remaining seniors
4. Single dose to other half— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 18, 2021
We can finish 2nd doses for of rest of seniors early April
And vaccinate other high risk folks then too
Bottom line?
We should have enough vaccines for high risk folks before UK variant dominant
Need flawless execution
But its doable
And I think we can do this
End
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 18, 2021
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com