Dr. Weather is Alive!

Jim Roemer (a.k.a. Dr. Weather) has decided to continue his work on Best Ski Weather (dot com). Over the summer he was contemplating retiring the ski specific/weather website that he founded.

pic of Sugarbush, South – taken Sunday – first snow. credit BDF

Fortunately for all skiers, riders and winter enthusiasts Roemer is sticking around this season. Over the next five months he will be tracking storms and nor’easters as they dump fresh POWDER all over New England—our home; notorious for wind, ice, freezing temperatures and bad weather in general. Best Ski Weather will give clients the forewarning they need to be prepared for the worst.
You will catch a glimpse every now and again of Roemer’s work if you stay tuned to this site. I have been following his forecasting since he broke onto the scene as Mad River Glen’s weather guy. Alas, Dr. Weather has gotten ‘to big and to corporate’ for the area still stuck in a time warp. Nonetheless, he is a member of the co-op and his forecasting skills (especially when snow is involved) are still top notch. More importantly, Jim skis often and well, thus his exuberance for predicting powder shines.
If you desire to learn more check out his site (still under reconstruction). Best Ski Weather He is by no means the only weatherperson out on the snow; but by my opinion the most accurate, entertaining and informative. I am glad he is back.
Below find a release he sent out several days ago about the Nor’easter that is dominating headlines. Read and judge for yourself.
Think Snow!
PRESS RELEASE SUNDAY October 23, 2005
Another Perfect Storm!—only this time, eastern seaboard to be affected by more flooding with surprise snows in northern Mountains.
Burlington, Vermont–James Roemer—Bestskiweather.com
(Jay Peak could see 1-2 feet snow; Stowe a foot or more higher elevations; with 6-12” possible Sugarbush, Killington, N. Adirondacks and N. Whites mid-late week)
We discussed last Friday that the most active hurricane season in history will throw one more huge curve to the United States and that the eastern seaboard, not just Florida may be in trouble this week. This is the first time in history that the Atlantic basin has witnessed cycling through the complete lists of hurricane names, in which we had to start over in the Alphabet; the last one Wilma, before Alpha formed earlier this weekend. We just ran out of names—we had to start with “Alphabet” Both of these storms will converge east of Cape Hattaras on Tuesday and may throw some real surprises with hurricane force winds on the eastern shores of Long Island to Nantucket, flooding rains and tropical storm winds further inland, possibly as far west as New York City to the New Hampshire coast and surprise heavy snows in the northern Green Mountains and then lighter mid-week snows in the White Mountains. Mt. Washington will end up with the snowiest October on record, once the snows ends by Friday. But first, look for more big floods in New Hampshire.
Remember the bestselling book “The Perfect Storm” written by Sebastain Junger in 2000 about the fishing boat “The Andrea Gail” that left Gloucester, Mass. and was caught up in a weather system in which three storm systems merged?
This will be at least as bad as the notorious “perfect storm” and the only other time I can remember that three storm systems converged in the Atlantic—two of them will be hurricanes, both Wilma, Alpha and a Midwest weather system. Only this time, the east coast, which has been inundated with rains lately, could see some detrimental flooding, especially in New Hampshire!
The active hurricane season can be blamed on unusually warm Atlantic and Gulf sea surface temperatures—induced by global warming, incredibly conducive trade winds and weak wind shear aloft that often limits the further development of initial tropical
Waves or tropical depressions.
The sea surface temperature departure from normal map, on the next page, illustrates the unusually warm ocean temperatures (yellow) that have extended from the Gulf Coast, where Katrina and Rita landed , westward into the Caribbean and Atlantic; the breeding ground for many of these intense hurricanes have formed—( a record 3 category 5 storms in one season). Of course, the northeastern United States coastlines are always cooler than the Gulf and southern Atlantic, but this year it has been much warmer than normal. The warm ocean currents extending all the way up the east coast should keep Wilma and Alpha as at least a category one hurricane.
Potential Upcoming Detrimental Effects –
Not only will Florida residents be dealing with no fewer than their fifth hurricane in one year, but the billion dollar citrus industry will be under the gun one more time with at least a category 2 hurricane.
Wilma will then weaken to a category one over Florida, but merge with Alpha in the southwestern Atlantic and possibly restrengthen to a category 2 or stronger! “I think this storm will be stronger and more dangerous than people realize as it tracks up the east coast to the east of Long Island into the Gulf of Maine. Hopefully, the hurricane force winds will be in much the same area as the 1991 ‘perfect storm was”, but this storm will be so broad and intense that tropical storms winds will be felt on Long Island up to central and eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and hurricane force winds in Maine. I am very concerned about heavy rains aggravating the already tenuous situation in New Hampshire.
Similar to what we were saying last Friday, in which we felt Wilma would track a little closer to the eastern seaboard and bring heavy rains to the coast, tropical storm winds and surprise mountains snows in Northern Vermont and then eventually New Hampshire after the heavy rains end.
Implications for winter!
Following the 1991 “perfect storm”, the winter of 1991-1992 went on to be a warm winter in the eastern United States with generally below snowfall. However, one can not take that year verbatim and say this winter will be the same. Why? For starters, there was an El Nino year back in 1991, sea surface temperatures along the Atlantic are quite a bit warmer this fall, and we have had a record number of hurricanes and now snow in parts of northern New England. Hence, we will be going to the drawing board over these next few weeks and coming up with our winter forecast, but my guess is, this winter will almost definitely be colder and snowier in the east than the winter of 1991-1992. The question is how much?
Our country’s economy may not tolerate another spike in energy prices if the winter is cold, but winter tourism revenue, mainly from skiers, could get a real shot in the arm. The ideal scenario would be for a warm, snowy winter.
Both Alpha and Wilma will be converging along the east coast on Tuesday. The high pressure to the north, should maintain cold air to the north, so that any pounding rains that hit Vermont and New Hampshire this week, will quickly change over to snow with some surprising heavy amounts.
If the maps are correct this week—the hurricane moving towards New Brunswick and not into the Gulf of Maine, colder air will move further east. This will mean temperatures above 2,000 feet will fall back into the 20’s to lower 30’s on Wednesday to Friday. If this happens, ski areas such as Jay Peak, Mt. Washington and Stowe could get a foot or more of snow from this with at least several inches over central Vermont, the Adirondacks and northern New Hampshire and eventually Maine.
Snow has already fallen in sections of the northern Green Mountains early this morning.
ROEMER