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‘Primed for a big show’: Yankee magazine’s 2024 fall foliage forecast is here
“It's more than just driving around and looking at trees — it’s building a culture of enjoying the beautiful weather and beautiful colors we have.”
Yankee magazine dropped its 2024 national fall foliage forecast on Tuesday, with specific predictions for another bold, bright, and colorful autumn in New England.
According to Yankee’s foliage expert and meteorologist Jim Salge, the six-state New England region is “primed for a big show” after a good growing season this year with minimal impact from droughts, overwatering, insects, and fungus.
“We expect peak color to develop on time in northern New England, compared with historical averages, with the onset of cooler weather,” Salge wrote in his report. “Colors should be bright, and trending toward a redder year if abundant sunshine allows.”
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When putting together his yearly forecasts, Salge considers a number of factors, including the amount of summer rain, insect activity, mold growth, and more in an area. If the previous summer season was too wet, the trees can get stressed and don’t turn as bright in the fall. On the other hand, if the season was too dry, the leaves may still turn bright, but will be early and short-lived.
“Healthy trees make great fall foliage,” Salge said.
According to his forecast, the best spots to catch the fall colors this year should be the Berkshires, central Green Mountains, much of the White Mountains, and western Maine.
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But different areas change color and peak at different times, like a cascade rippling throughout the region in a predictable pattern. Salge follows this wave every year, starting in late September in northeast Vermont or northern New Hampshire. Next, he moves to the White Mountains, the area around Stowe, Vermont, and western Maine. Then, the wave flows all the way down to the coast, and Boston gets its peak foliage at the end of October or early November.
This geographical route can be predicted by analyzing different climate zones and elevations, allowing people to follow the path of the changing leaves for five to six weeks of great color. So once peak foliage reaches the south shore of Connecticut or downtown Boston, the trees up in the north are already bare.
Because of this predictability, there are different times to visit different locations, said Salge. For example, people often get the timing wrong for Acadia National Park, which usually peaks around the second or third week of October. Many visit too early and miss much of its color.
“We need cool nights to get things going, and by mid-September, hopefully we’ve had a few,” Salge said, calling last year’s foliage “a bit disappointing for two reasons.”
First, the region experienced a very wet summer last year, which caused large amounts of fungus to bloom and dull the colors. Additionally, it was an El Niño year, which brings warm temperatures. The limited cold air meant that the leaves didn’t start changing until late.
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This year, we may still see some of the same fungus as last year since it was so prolific and the spores are still present, according to Salge, but we haven’t had as much rain, so it won’t grow in such large amounts.
The foliage in the six states can look very different, and the types of trees that grow play a huge role in this. Southern New England’s forests have a more mixed assortment, including oaks. While eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut still have maples and get beautiful foliage, said Salge, the leaves all change at different times, leaving some green mixed in.
The north, on the other hand, is much more uniform with maple, birch, and beech trees that all go bright at the same time. The Vermont ridgelines go “completely ablaze” and the White Mountains are a top destination, according to Salge. “You just get a spectacular landscape that’s completely uniform.”
The publication’s fall foliage forecast also covered the rest of the country, taking into account droughts in the mid-Atlantic region, a cooler spring in the upper Midwest, and more.
Yankee’s September issue will be available in late August and will feature recommendations for weekend outings, a roundup of the best regional farmer’s markets, travel guides for specific New England cities, and more.
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Yankee will issue a mid-September update to the forecast, and by that point, Salge will have a much better idea of how the temperatures and fungus are setting up. Yankee‘s website, NewEngland.com, will also feature seasonal recipes, events and travel for anyone looking to immerse themselves in the region’s autumn festivities.
“We’ve kind of built a culture of celebrating the beauty around us each fall,” Salge said. “When people talk about leaf peeping, it’s more than just driving around and looking at trees — it’s building family traditions. It’s building a culture of enjoying the beautiful weather and beautiful colors we have.”
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