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Oscars 2024 predictions: Full list of who will win each category
Thanks to the dominance of "Oppenheimer," 2024 Oscars predictions seem easier to make than recent years. But there's still room for upsets and snubs.
If you’re looking for an edge on your 2024 Oscars predictions before the ceremony this Sunday on ABC at 7 p.m., there are three things you should know: The favorites win the majority of the time, the guilds representing the various branches of Academy voters usually know best, and the Best Picture category generally remains the hardest to predict — though it’s looking pretty easy this year.
Reader Predictions
Since expanding the field from five to (up to) 10 movies for the 82nd Academy Awards in 2009, the Academy Award for Best Picture has had more notable upsets than any major category. Unlike the other awards, the Academy uses ranked choice voting to determine the Best Picture winner, with voters able to list all of the nominees in order of preference. That’s led to some surprises, from “Spotlight” besting “The Revenant” to the chaos that ensued when “Moonlight” upset runaway favorite “La La Land.”
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That said, it would be a monumental shock if any film but “Oppenheimer” took home the top award Sunday night. Christopher Nolan’s nuclear epic has already won best picture from the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and just about every other awards body of note.
The toughest decision among my crop of 2024 Oscars predictions is in Best Actress, which is a two-woman competition between Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) and Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”). Both have won several prerequisite awards: Stone was honored by the BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards, Gladstone nabbed the SAG award, and each landed a Golden Globe, with Stone in Comedy and Gladstone in Drama.
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To help you make sense of this year’s Academy Awards — as well as give you some of my own personal picks as Boston.com’s chief movie scribe — here is my full list of 2024 Oscars predictions, including who I think will win every category, who I wish would win, and who was snubbed of a deserving nomination.
Watch: Kevin talks 2024 Oscars predictions on ‘Boston Globe Today’
Best Picture
Nominees: “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,”
“Poor Things,” “The Zone of Interest”
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Past Lives”
Snubbed: “May December”
“Past Lives,” my pick for the best movie of 2023, has no chance of winning. “May December,” my runner-up, wasn’t even nominated. That said, this is the first time ever that all 10 movies nominated were among my top 20 or so movies of the year, so there’s practically no chance of disappointment on my end.
Even if voters place other movies first on their ranked choice ballots, it’s hard to envision many members ranking “Oppenheimer” outside their top five. Nolan’s film is an incredible achievement of filmmaking, and a deserving winner of the top prize at the 2024 Oscars.
Best Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”),
Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”), Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”),
Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
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Will win: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Should win: Murphy
Snubbed: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
In a movie filled with A-list actors making the most of limited screentime, Murphy is almost never out of frame. He’s so central to the film that Nolan took the rare step of writing the entire script in the first person from Oppenheimer’s perspective.
This is a strong field of nominees, but Leonardo DiCaprio unquestionably deserved a nod for one of his career-best performances. He is an avatar of greed and stupidity on par with Scorsese’s best (Henry Hill of “Goodfellas,” Jordan Belfort of “The Wolf of Wall Street”), and watching the way he destroys the life of Molly (Lily Gladstone) is tragic and unmissable.
Best Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (“Nyad”), Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
Will win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Should win: Gladstone
Snubbed: Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
As noted in the introduction, Best Actress is the most exciting race of all the major awards. Stone and Gladstone’s competition is actually identical to last year’s Best Actress race, in which Cate Blanchett (“Tar”) won the same prerequisites as Stone (BAFTA, Critics Choice), Michelle Yeoh (“Everything, Everywhere All At Once”) won the same as Gladstone (Screen Actors Guild), and each won a Golden Globe. When in doubt, go with who the actors picked.
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Though it’s already been discussed ad nauseum (with even Hillary Clinton weighing in!), Margot Robbie was indeed snubbed in this category. Previously brilliant in 2017’s “I, Tonya,” Robbie perfectly embodies the impossible standard that Barbie — and many women — strive to achieve. The movie wouldn’t work without her.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Should win: Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Snubbed: Charles Melton, “May December”
Downey Jr. will win a long-overdue Oscar, but I’d argue there were at least three better supporting performances in “Oppenheimer” alone. My nonexistent vote would go to Gosling, who brought some of the twitchy, anxious energy he channeled in 2016’s “The Nice Guys” to “Barbie.”
Charles Melton winning a Gotham Award way back in November got my hopes up, but the “May December” star was left out of a very strong field.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), America Ferrera (“Barbie”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Should win: Randolph
Snubbed: Natalie Portman, “May December”
Instead of a musical number, pre-taped video, or a playful opening monologue from Jimmy Kimmel, the 2024 Oscars should simply open with Da’Vine Joy Randolph being handed this award.
There is no bigger lock at this year’s ceremony than Randolph’s win for “The Holdovers,” in which she not only goes toe to toe with Paul Giamatti, but perfectly presents a portrait of stoic grief, quietly mourning the death of her son in Vietnam.
Best Director
Nominees: Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
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Will win: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Should win: Nolan
Snubbed: Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Both Gerwig and “The Holdovers” director Alexander Payne deserved to be here. But absent their presence, this is Nolan’s award to lose.
“Oppenheimer” might be one of the most thorough, ambitious historical dramas ever put to film. Nolan deserves his flowers for pulling it off.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “The Holdovers,” “Maestro,” “May December,” “Past Lives”
Will Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should Win: “Past Lives”
Was Snubbed: “Barbie”
“Anatomy of a Fall” is in an odd situation. The French courtroom thriller was nominated for five Oscars, but not for Best International Film, because France decided to enter the (also excellent) “The Taste of Things” for consideration instead. This seems like a good spot for voters to recognize “Anatomy,” with writer-director Justine Triet and co-writer Arthur Harari taut script one of the film’s greatest strengths.
Side note to the Academy: In the future, maybe consider letting countries enter more than one film for consideration in the Best International Film category? And why is “Barbie,” which isn’t based on any existing story, stuck in Adapted Screenplay?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “American Fiction,” “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “The Zone of Interest”
Will Win: “American Fiction”
Should Win: “American Fiction”
Was Snubbed: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
First-time director Cord Jefferson’s biting satire “American Fiction” deserves some recognition. Given that it won’t win any of its other five nominations, Jefferson’s adaptation of Percival Everett’s complex, imaginative novel “Erasure” seems like a good spot.
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Speaking of complex adaptations, the only reasonable explanation for omitting “Killers of the Flower Moon” in this category is that Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese’s screenplay departs significantly from the novel by David Grann (who also received a screenplay credit on the film, for what it’s worth).
Full list of Oscars 2024 predictions
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: “The Boy and the Heron,” “Elemental,” “Nimona,” “Robot Dreams,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Will win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Should win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
You could make an argument for “The Boy and the Heron,” which might be Hayao Miyazaki’s final film. But the second entry in the Spiderverse series is undeniable, featuring gorgeous animation, a clever script from Phil Lord and Chris Miller, and an opening 15 minutes that left me giddy in the theater.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: “Io Capitano,” “Perfect Days,” “Society of the Snow,” “The Teachers’ Lounge,” “The Zone of Interest”
Will win: “The Zone of Interest”
Should win: “The Zone of Interest”
With rare exceptions from 50+ years ago involving eligibility rules that are too complex to get into here (feel free to email me if you want to learn more!), any international movie that is also nominated for Best Picture wins the Best International Film category. “The Zone of Interest” is a lock.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President,” “The Eternal Memory,” “Four Daughters,” “To Kill a Tiger,” “20 Days in Mariupol”
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Will win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
Should win: 20 Days in Mariupol”
Huge shoutout to the “Frontline” team at GBH in Boston for producing “20 Days in Mariupol,” a harrowing on-the-ground view of the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” (“Flamin’ Hot”), “I’m Just Ken” (“Barbie”), “It Never Went Away” (“American Symphony”), “Wahzhazhe” (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) “What Was I Made For?” (“Barbie”)
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Should win: “I’m Just Ken”
When in doubt, pick the biggest celebrity nominated in this category. Billie Eilish’s song isn’t even the best tune in “Barbie,” but you can bet on her and brother Finneas O’Connell winning their second Oscar in this category, following their 2022 victory for Bond anthem “No Time To Die.”
Best Original Score
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
No disrespect to Ludwig Göransson’s “Oppenheimer” score, but what better way to honor the late Robbie Robertson than to acknowledge his work on “Killers of the Flower Moon”? The Band lead guitarist’s pitch-perfect score is a chugging, insistent blues riff that grips you and doesn’t let go.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: “El Conde,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things”
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Oppenheimer”
If “Oppenheimer” doesn’t win this category, I’ll eat my hat. Then I’ll eat Cillian Murphy’s hat.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things”
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Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Poor Things”
Every single aspect of “Oppenheimer” is huge, from the cast to the real, non-CGI explosions Nolan created to mimic the Trinity Test. But “Oppenheimer” is also quiet and understated, with much of its three-hour runtime functioning as a sprawling game of 1940s backroom politics. Successfully striking that balance is a feat of editing.
Best Sound
Nominees: “The Creator,” “Maestro,” “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One,” “Oppenheimer,” “The Zone of Interest,”
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “The Zone of Interest”
For all his technical prowess, Nolan’s films tend to have subpar sound mixing. Even in the best theaters, his dialogue occasionally sounds like it’s playing out of rear-facing TV speakers. “The Zone of Interest” uses sound in a genuinely avant garde fashion, and the movie wouldn’t be the same without it.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: “The Creator,” “Godzilla Minus One,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One,” “Napoleon”
Will win: “Godzilla Minus One”
Should win: “The Creator”
Many have wondered how “Godzilla Minus One” managed to produce better CGI on a $12 million budget than most $200 million Marvel movies. The inconvenient answer is that the film’s tiny VFX team was very likely subject to poor working conditions, which are too common in the Japanese film industry. With Disney VFX workers fighting to unionize (and as a proud union member myself), I feel better supporting the brilliant effects in the otherwise pedestrian sci-fi blockbuster “The Creator.”
Best Production Design
Nominees: “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things”
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Will win: “Barbie”
Should win: “Barbie”
If this award goes to “Oppenheimer,” it will be a sign that Nolan’s film may break Oscar records. But “Barbie” should take this one thanks to the immersive pink playland dreamed up by Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things”
Will win: “Barbie”
Should win: “Poor Things”
“Barbie” may end up duking it out with the funhouse mirror version of Barbie (“Poor Things”) over Costume Design and Production Design. A “Barbie” win would be fine (and seems likely), but “Poor Things” features some truly spectacular costuming.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “Golda,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “Society of the Snow”
Will win: “Poor Things”
Should win: “Poor Things”
There’s a chance that “Maestro” (and its infamous prosthetic nose) sneak a victory here. But “Poor Things,” which doesn’t have to fight off “Barbie” for this award, should deservingly take home the statuette.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees: “The After,” “Invincible,” “Knight of Fortune,” “Red, White and Blue,” “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
Will win: “The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar”
Should win: “The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar”
There’s a chance the Academy will go for something more politically relevant like the abortion drama “Red, White and Blue.” But my hope is that Wes Anderson, who somehow didn’t get a single nomination for the sublime “Asteroid City,” is recognized here for his playful Roald Dahl adaptation.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees: “Letter to a Pig,” “Ninety-Five Senses,” “Our Uniform,” “Pachyderme,” “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
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Will win: “Letter to a Pig”
Should win: “Letter to a Pig”
In a pretty weak field overall, Tal Kantor’s Holocaust short “Letter to a Pig” probably wins out. The cynic in me almost wants to pick “WAR IS OVER!” because of the star power of executive producer Yoko Ono and co-writer Sean Lennon, but it’s probably the worst of a mediocre batch.
Best Documentary Short Film
Nominees: “The ABCs of Book Banning,” “The Barber of Little Rock,” “Island in Between,” “The Last Repair Shop,” “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
Will win: “The ABCs of Book Banning”
Should win: “The Last Repair Shop”
Sheila Nevins, who has produced more than 1,000 documentaries for HBO and is widely respected in the industry, produced “The ABCs of Book Banning,” which is unfortunately the worst of the five nominees. Here’s hoping voters actually take time to watch all of the shorts and pick “The Last Repair Shop,” a lovely story produced by the L.A. Times about an inner-city music repair shop and the fascinating life stories of its employees.
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