Gas Prices Are Likely to Rise in the Spring
Gas prices in Massachusetts and the nation have been steadily declining since July 2014, but that may be changing soon.
Prices at the pump have been falling in tandem with crude oil prices, which have also hit a five-year low as oil supply has outpaced demand. Currently at a nationwide average of $2.04 per gallon, gas prices are at the lowest they’ve ever been since 2009.
Experts predict there’s a good chance the national average could drop below $2 per gallon in the coming weeks, before rising in time for spring and summer.
Despite Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah’s death Thursday night, experts don’t expect the news to shake up the market too much. Oil prices jumped 2 percent to $47 per barrel following the news Thursday, but have fallen back down Friday morning.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest producer of crude oil, has announced that Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, Abdullah’s half brother, will take the throne and intends to maintain the same oil policies that have kept prices low.
Every spring, gas prices in the US rise about 30 to 50 cents due to scheduled refinery maintenance which slows down production and increased demand for gasoline as people travel more in the warmer weather, according to AAA public relations manager Michael Green, who specializes in gas prices.
Green isn’t sure how much prices will rise this spring, but he doesn’t expect the national average to exceed $3 per gallon this year.
“Forecasting where gas prices are going is similar to picking the stock market. No one really knows where it’s going to go, and the situation is more volatile than normal,’’ Green said. Abdullah’s death adds another layer of volatility to the situation, he added.
Barring other unforeseen events with oil refineries or geo-political tensions, GasBuddy, a company that reports fuel prices, believes prices will rise beginning next month until they reach an average of $2.70 to $2.95 between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
“Prices are likely to bottom out in the next couple weeks,’’ said Patrick DeHaan, a GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst. “Most of the drop [in oil prices] is likely over, and gas prices have already caught up to the drop in oil.’’
Gas prices will then begin to fall after Labor Day and reach a low around November or December, GasBuddy predicts.
The Northeast generally sees slightly higher gas prices than the national average. While the national average is about $2.04 per gallon, the Massachusetts and Boston average is $2.15 per gallon on Friday.
“Less than 10 percent of the nation’s refinery capacity is on the East coast, yet that’s where the bulk of the driving population lives,’’ Green said.
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