How to Electrify Auto Buyers; LeBron and Kia
There are two long-range automotive goals out there that we keep reading about.
One is the federally mandated CAFE (corporate average fleet economy) figure of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.
The other is the ZEV (zero emissions vehicles) mandate for 2025. There are 10 ZEV states (including Massachusetts) that require 15 percent of new vehicles sold within their borders by 2025 be zero emissions vehicles—about 4 million vehicles in 11-plus years.
For the record, the other ZEV states are California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
ZEVs include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) such as the Nissan Leaf and Tesla S; plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) such as the Chevrolet Volt, Prius Plug-In, and Ford C-Max Energi; and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) such as the Hyundai Tucson and coming Toyota and Honda models.
On one side, we have governments (federal and state) setting these mandates and signing agreements.
On the other, we have the automakers, including the trade group Global Automakers, representing foreign manufacturers such as Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Subaru, and Toyota who do business here.
John Bozzella, president and CEO of Global Automakers, was in Middleboro this month to speak to the New England Motor Press about the ZEV mandate and the task of shaping public policy.
Among the realities:
• Automakers have been spending billions developing, producing, and promoting ZEVs.
• The 24 hybrids and ZEVs currently on the market are safe, dependable, and easy to drive.
• More than 100,000 ZEVs have been sold since 2011 in California, but only 30,000 in Oregon and the Northeast eight states.
“Hybrid technology has been around for 13 to 14 years now,’’ Bozzella says. “It’s a widely accepted technology, and automakers are committed to staying in that game.’’
However, to comply with the ZEV mandate, Bozzella estimates that the industry needs to sell an average of 350,000 ZEVs per year in the states involved.
It’s not happening.
“In California, electrified auto sales are at about 3 percent [of new car sales]. In the Northeast states it’s less than .5 percent … and dropping,’’ he says.
California is developing the hydrogen infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles and permits ZEVs to use HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes with only a single operator aboard.
“Those are the types of incentives that move the market,’’ Bozzella says.
Developing a hydrogen refueling network in the Northeast and more fast-charging outlets for EVs are two obvious steps to be taken.
“We need to turn our aspirations into action,’’ says Bozzella about the ZEV memorandum in the Northeast that is part of a consortium called Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM).
Another factor involved is that in Massachusetts, for example, 50 percent of new vehicle sales are trucks (SUVs are considered trucks). That limits the potential market for ZEVs.
Also, the fuel cell-powered trend is just beginning.
Hyundai has launched its hydrogen-powered Tucson fuel cell vehicle in California. We recently drove it here and were impressed.
“Toyota’s fuel cell vehicle is coming along soon as well,’’ says Bozzella, “and the company is investing in the refueling infrastructure and plans to see it through.’’
Is it just coincidence that we’re seeing a drop in oil prices just as this movement tries to gain traction?
In addition, we’re seeing considerable advances in fuel economy in traditional internal combustion engines thanks to turbocharging (to get more power from smaller displacements), direct injection, start/stop systems, and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs).
The EPA this month announced that model year 2013 vehicles achieved an average of 24.1 mpg—an increase of nearly 5 mpg since 2004 and a .5 mpg increase over 2012. The report singled out Mazda for having the highest fuel economy average and lowest greenhouse gas emissions and Nissan for making the greatest progress in both of those areas.
There’s also a pending mid-term review of the federal CAFE mandate in the next three years.
That’s when we’ll see if we have the political will to follow through in what also is a mandate for cleaner air and freedom from reliance on foreign oil.
“Ambassador’’ LeBron James
Part of Kia’s global marketing strategy has been to use big-name athletes as ambassadors. NBA star Blake Griffin, tennis champion Rafael Nadal, and US Women’s Open golf champion Michelle Wie all have international appeal.
Now they’re being joined by LeBron “King’’ James, who will be the first luxury ambassador for Kia’s new K900 flagship sedan.
In August, James posted, “Rolling around in my K900. Love this car,’’ online along with some photos.
We have to wonder whether the now-discontinued Kia Rondo would have made it in the United States if the company had been able to secure the Celtics’ Rajon Rondo as an ambassador.
Hyping Hybrids and EVs
Toyota last month passed the seven million unit mark in global hybrid sales, including more than 2.5 million in North America. The Prius, launched in 2000 in the United States, is on its way to becoming the best-selling vehicle in California for the third straight year … Tesla’s plans to build a Gigafactory with the eventual capacity to assemble battery packs for up to 500,000 vehicles a year is another vote for the future of electric vehicles. Still, industry analysts confirm that battery technology is only making incremental improvements, meaning that hybrids and plug-in hybrids remain the technology bridge for the mid-term future.
Etc.
The Larz Anderson Auto Museum in Brookline closes out its lawn event season today (10 a.m.-2 p.m.) with the Ocean Bay Chapter of the Studebaker Drivers Club hosting its 23rd annual Oktoberfest Concourse Reunion. The event is open to all automobiles produced by Studebaker, including Packard, Pierce Arrow, EMF, Flanders, and Avanti II.
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